Bali Identified By UN As At Risk Of Devastating El Niño In 2026: Here’s What Tourists Need To Know

Kintamani has been especially chilly this week, and how many of us have heard a strained “Aku dingiiiiiin” as we walk about in the early morning…just us?!

Latest Situation & Advisory Details

As Bali is in the dry season, we would expect temperatures to increase at this time of year. As many parts of the island, and in fact many regions nationwide, are still recovering from an utterly devastating rainy season, there are more serious updates coming from the United Nations regarding weather conditions for the rest of the year.

The UN is calling on countries to prepare for an imminent return to El Niño, which intensifies weather extremes, especially drier conditions, across Central America, northern regions of South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia.

Speaking to reporters, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, the Chief of Climate Prediction at the World Meteorological Organisation, explained: “After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow.”

Adding “Models indicate that this may be a strong event, but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April.”

Separately, the Secretary General of the WMO, Celeste Saulo, told reporters that this year’s El Niño could be the strongest of the century. Saulo explained, “The spread is large. There are models that are not providing any indication of a strong El Niño, while others are doing so.”

Affected Corridors & Port/Flight Status

The UN Secretary General, António Guterres, shared his insights, calling on the world to “treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” adding, “El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.”

“Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.” WMO has announced that it will issue the “next WMO El Niño/La Niña Update in late May, providing more robust guidance for decision-making in the June–August period and beyond.”

What does this mean for Bali, and what does this mean for Bali tourists? In the short term, there is certainly no need to panic, and all travel plans can continue as intended.

Nevertheless, tourists must be prepared to encounter higher-than-normal temperatures in Bali and other areas of Indonesia throughout the dry season. Preparedness for extreme temperatures includes packing light cool clothing, sun cream, and emergency supplies like electrolytes.

It also looks like booking accommodation with air conditioning or climate-controlled rooms. It can also look like planning itineraries that factor in the possibility of extreme heat, which includes periods indoors during the heat of the day, or activities that are outdoors in cooler and well-shaded areas.

Safety Restrictions & Operational Directives

For Bali in particular, as the region becomes drier, the risk of wildfires is increased, especially in areas like the Mount Batur Geopark and regions like Karangasem Regency aka East Bali, where drought is common.

Access to fresh, clean drinking water is never usually a concern in Bali, though over on the Gili Islands, issues with fresh water have been ongoing for many years.

This is something that day trippers and visitors to the Gili Islands must be aware of; fresh water shortages are common, water restrictions are often in place, and mindful water consumption is observed at all times.

Tourists in Bali can stay up to date with the latest weather warnings with us here at Regional Travel Monitors. It is also advisable to follow the Bali Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency on Instagram, where extreme weather warnings and daily tourist weather forecasts are published in English and Bahasa Indonesia.

What Travelers Should Do

Maritime and atmospheric weather patterns can affect inter-island boat crossings to Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan, and Lombok. When swell or weather warnings are active, travelers should confirm departure schedules directly with licensed harbor operators and maintain flexible itinerary timing. For live harbor advisories, wave heights, and marine condition reports across Badung Strait, refer to our Island Travel Safety Radar.